Compare and contrast qualitative time series and causal analysis approaches to revenue forecasting

Selection of Forecasting Method The choice of a forecasting technique is influenced significantly by the stage of the product life cycle and sometimes by the firm or industry for which a decision is being made.

What is the difference between qualitative and quantitative methods of forecasting?

The Technology method should always be used in conjunction with other tools to identify prospective customers, prototypes, focus groups, interviews, market testing, internet polls and other tools to get a better understanding of the market.

So the airline industry, more than any other industry, needs an accurate forecasting not only because of the September 11 occurrence, but also due to a very high price of crude oil, which tends to increase the price of kerosene highly used by the industry.

For example, if you want qualitative information for projecting sales for the year, you might estimate the impact of a new ad campaign or promotion your company is planning, look at the effects that new technologies might have on consumer purchasing and take into account recent social fads and trends.

A time series is a set of numbers that measures the status of some activity over time. The remaining of this paper will be talking about the different forecasting methods used by the airline industry to make future prediction of passenger demand.

The experts are not influenced by peer pressure to forecast a certain way, as the answer is not intended to be reached by consensus or unanimity. However, they did not show much flexibility on their plans at all, but they were willingly to pay more money for their tickets.

Insulation of the group tends to separate the group from outside opinions, if given. The Delphi method is a judgmental forecasting method, which uses the evaluation of several experts within the field that is being analyzed to forecast company sales.

Thus, the forecast has to be well thought and planned so it can be called good or adequate forecasting. In other words, most of our techniques are based on historical data.

The management team modifies the resulting forecast, based on their expectations. Several different forecasting methods exist within the time series category, including simple moving average, weighted moving average and simple exponential smoothing, exponential smoothing with trend, and linear regression.

What is the difference between qualitative and quantitative methods of forecasting?

After that, forecast and finally, monitor the results to whether or not the trend has weakened, strengthened, or if there is any factors that have gone unchanged. The forecasting methods that will be compared and contrasted within this paper are the Delphi method which is an example of qualitativetime series analysis, seasonal, and causal relationship forecasting.

This enables the experts to refine their views while the group continues to work on the assigned task.

Forecasting Methods Compare and Contrast Essay Sample

This will happen several times until all parties involved reach a consensus. Techniques used by Judgment-Base method are Monitoring, The self-projecting time series uses only the time series data of the activity to be forecast to generate forecasts.

Then gather and analyze relevant data. Qualitative Forecasting Methods The qualitative or judgmental approach can be useful in formulating short-term forecasts and can also supplement the projections based on the use of any of the quantitative methods. The basic idea behind self-projecting time series forecasting models is to find a mathematical formula that will approximately generate the historical patterns in a time series.

The advantage of this approach: Airlines make use of censored data to determine their forecast of demand and revenue management system to calculate how many seats must be reserved at different prices. Causal relationship happens when one independent variable causes an occurrence of another independent variable.

This continues until a consensus is reached. There is no committee or debate. The forecasting methods that will be compared and contrasted within this paper are the Delphi method which is an example of qualitativetime series analysis, seasonal, and causal relationship forecasting.

Also, the prediction of future developments is not always accurate by iterative consensus nor by experts but by "off the wall" thinking or by "non-experts".

Strong leadership fosters group pressure for unanimous opinion. After the product has entered the maturity stage, the decisions are more routine, involving marketing and manufacturing. Approaches to time Series Forecasting: There are two basic approaches to forecasting time series: the self-projecting time series and the cause-and-effect approach.

Cause-and-effect methods attempt to forecast based on underlying series that are believed to cause the behavior of the original series. This paper will compare and contrast both qualitative and quantitative research methods endeavouring to highlight differences and similarities between the two methods.

Qualitative analysis is a detailed, focused and deep process that seeks to find meaning in. Compare and contrast Qualitative and Quantitative research methods Monique Gowans Charles Stuart University Compare and Contrast Qualitative and Quantitative Research Methods Qualitative research methods are complex meaningful analysis characterised by processes and meanings that are not experimentally examined or measured in terms of.

Qualitative, time series analysis, causal relationships, and simulation are the four basic types of forecasting (Chase, Jacobs, & Aquilano, ). The forecasting methods that will be compared and contrasted within this paper are the Delphi method (which is an example of qualitative), time series analysis, seasonal, and causal relationship /5(1).

This paper will compare and contrast both qualitative and quantitative research methods endeavouring to highlight differences and similarities between the two methods. Qualitative analysis is a detailed, focused and deep process that seeks to find meaning in.

Comparison and Contrast of Forecast Methods There are several different methods that can be used to create a forecast, this paper will compare and contrast the Seasonal, Delphi, Technological and Time Series method of forecasting.4/4(1).

Compare and contrast qualitative time series and causal analysis approaches to revenue forecasting
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Approaches to revenue forecasting.